{"id":824,"date":"2011-12-02T06:59:00","date_gmt":"2011-12-02T13:59:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.interculturalurbanism.com\/?p=824"},"modified":"2013-01-28T07:32:18","modified_gmt":"2013-01-28T14:32:18","slug":"peak-water-urban-sustainability-and-the-new-west","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.interculturalurbanism.com\/?p=824","title":{"rendered":"Peak Water, Urban Sustainability, and the ‘New West’"},"content":{"rendered":"

Water is a key resource constraint in urban development, especially here in the West. \u00a0Because of projected population growth\u2014anticipated to double to 10 million people by 2050\u2014Colorado is predicted to have a municipal and industrial water gap by at least 2030.\u00a0 \u00a0The gap is already emerging.\u00a0 \u00a0Climate change and the significant probability of drought<\/a> add uncertainties that further complicate urban hydro-sustainability. \u00a0Moreover, aging infrastructure\u00a0 will need replacing if the water that\u2019s already available is to be efficiently delivered to its intended destinations.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Collaboration between state entities that deal in water will be key in meeting future water needs.\u00a0 A major step in this direction was taken in 2005 with the formation (courtesy of Colorado HB 05-1177<\/a>) of the Interbasin Compact Committee<\/a> (IBCC).\u00a0 The IBCC broadens the range of stakeholders actively participating in the state\u2019s water decisions and creates a locally driven process where the decision-making power rests with those living in the state\u2019s river basins.\u00a0 The committee is committed to working with four strategies for creating a sustainable water future, encapsulated by a \u201c4 legged stool\u201d metaphor: (1) local projects involving \u00a0already developed water, (2) consumer conservation initiatives, (3) tapping of new water sources, and (4) agricultural-urban transfers. \u00a0Sustainability will depend on how well these strategies are mixed and matched. Other state bills like HB-08-1141<\/a> mandate that developers receiving building permits provide local government with better and more complete information regarding adequacy of the project\u2019s proposed water supply.\u00a0 Finally, earlier this year 35 water providers, towns, and ski resorts signed a historic Colorado River Cooperative Agreement<\/a> to partner on a holistic approach to responsible water development that will benefit both the western and eastern slopes of Colorado\u2019s Rocky Mountains.<\/p>\n

As reported elsewhere in this blog<\/a>, Business School colleagues and I have a research grant from DU\u2019s Institute for Enterprise Ethics<\/a> \u00a0to examine urban hydro-sustainability along Colorado\u2019s Front Range.\u00a0 Our team has been combing the literature and interviewing subject matter experts as a way to get a handle on the issues, and with the ultimate aim of making policy recommendations from a particular interdisciplinary perspective that integrates anthropology and real estate. \u00a0In deference to our sponsor we’ve also been thinking about the ethics of water management as it pertains to the four strategies identified above. Are some strategies better ethical choices than others? \u00a0To organize our research and reporting we\u2019ve established a website called Peak-Water<\/a>. Although describing Colorado\u2019s current situation as \u201cPeak Water\u201d is perhaps overly alarmist given the current supply (which by some estimates is capable of supporting the basic needs of three times the current population) the concept is nonetheless useful for reminding people about the importance of careful water planning and collaboration. \u00a0As several interviewed experts have noted so far, too often there\u2019s a serious disconnect between planning for people and planning for water.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>My personal interest in our project focuses on the relative merits of different urban design and built environment models for supporting hydro-sustainability.\u00a0 Western cities are known for sprawl, and we’ll likely see more of it in the future given the tenacity of the particular cultural values that have driven it in the past. As the \u00a0Center of the American West<\/a> reported in 2005:<\/p>\n

\u2026there\u2019s reason to believe that a lot more development is coming. The West has grown faster than the country as a whole for much of the last century, and is likely to outpace national growth for the foreseeable future. The \u201cNew West\u201d <\/strong><\/em>[emphasis added] <\/em><\/strong>\u00a0is increasingly attractive to migrants and to investors. Western land owners will certainly continue to respond to market forces, and to their own preferences, by transforming lower value land uses, like agriculture, into more financially-rewarding options like subdivisions and shopping malls. Finally, Westerners will continue to buy homes in suburbs distant from city centers and to build second homes in the forests and on ridge tops. They will demand highways, water systems, and other utilities. They will also continue to complain about the sprawl, traffic, interrupted views, and lost sense of community that growth brings.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"\"<\/a>In other words, people captivated by what David Brooks has called the \u201cParadise Spell<\/a>\u201d will continue to seek freedom and fortune in the American West.\u00a0 The result may not be your granddaddy\u2019s sprawl, however.\u00a0\u00a0 We\u2019re beginning to see planning for exurban development that is much more environmentally conscious and water-wise. \u00a0The project at\u00a0Sterling Ranch<\/a>\u00a0located southwest of Denver is foremost among them. The plan for Sterling Ranch is akin to what Ebenezer Howard<\/a> described\u00a0as a Garden City<\/a>. \u00a0 It’s nearly identical in size (around 30,000 people) and broadly similar in form. \u00a0A dense, mixed use town center will softly transect outward into tightly knit villages and end in rural, hillside ranchettes.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Howard’s Model of the Garden City<\/p><\/div>\n

Sustainability is the explicit design principle at Sterling Ranch.\u00a0 The development will employ pioneering\u00a0 water conservation measures, including rainwater harvesting (as per Colorado\u00a0HB 09-1129<\/a>), to support its 12,000 housing units and 31,000 people. \u00a0The estimate of water use per household is approximately one third of that traditionally required by Douglas County (.22 acre feet<\/a> per household per year compared to .75).\u00a0 At present Sterling Ranch developers are partnering with Denver Botanic Gardens<\/a> in a \u201cCommunity Supporting Agriculture\u201d test case for evaluating whether the community\u2019s fresh produce needs can be met locally instead of bringing fruits and vegetables in by truck.\u00a0 In keeping with New Urbanist commitments local landscape and history will be respected in the project\u2019s development, and a range of housing types and prices will be available (35% of the house product will be priced below $200,000).\u00a0 Promotional material<\/a> for Sterling Ranch riffs on a New West theme:<\/p>\n

The New West retains the rugged personality, and natural beauty of the Old West, but has evolved to suit the lifestyles of today\u2019s Westerners. Sterling Ranch provides plenty of opportunities to ride, run and play in natural settings, along with the sense of community that was once necessary when neighbors survived by working together. At the same time, it offers conveniences of modern life and a community that reflects today\u2019s society and real-world conditions.\u00a0 From a comprehensive water plan that ensures enough water for all; housing options that meet the needs of today\u2019s buyers; public spaces that bring communities together; schools that teach skills the next generation needs to succeed; and Community Supporting Agriculture that grows food for our tables\u2013Sterling Ranch creates a vision for the New West.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Sterling Ranch Conceptual Drawing<\/p><\/div>\n

Sterling Ranch represents a noble vision and is an experiment worth monitoring. \u00a0Other Front Range developers certainly will be watching.\u00a0 Assuming some success, the question will arise of \u00a0how many Sterling Ranch-style garden cities can the Front Range accommodate?\u00a0 And, will this land use pattern promise any greater long-term environmental and social sustainability than, say, mid-to-high rise densification projects in the urban core, especially those that choose to experiment with vertical farming<\/a>?<\/p>\n

Front Range urban hydro-sustainability prospects are also complicated by the fact that water isn\u2019t the only relevant variable affecting Western development. Peak Oil<\/a> suggests, at least to some, that efforts to preserve our current way of occupying the landscape through technological innovation are doomed and that\u00a0urban contraction<\/a> is the only sustainable planning choice.\u00a0\u00a0 If there\u2019s no significant energy savings associated with\u00a0 transporting water horizontally to a population distributed in exurban Garden Cities as opposed to one that\u2019s distributed in a high rise (Radiant City?<\/a>) urban core, then contraction and vertical densification would seem to be the better bet.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s also the matter of Peak Population, especially as concerns ethnicity and age. \u00a0Sterling Ranch will undoubtedly attract a particular demographic that is white, middle-class, and nuclear family-based\u2014and that\u2019s OK.\u00a0 But Colorado is clearly becoming increasingly diverse in terms of ethnic makeup.\u00a0 As recently reported by North Forty News<\/a>, Colorado\u2019s Hispanic population increased by 41% over the past decade. \u00a0The African-American population rose by 19%. \u00a0The Asian population is up 45%. \u00a0In contrast, the white non-Hispanic population grew by 10%. \u00a0These increases occurred throughout the state and not just in metropolitan areas. \u00a0Will domestic minorities be drawn to communities like Sterling Ranch, or any other urban development, if cultural diversity<\/a> is not a central planning and design concern?<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

We\u2019re seeing the aging of Colorado\u2019s population as well. The number of people over age 65 is predicted to increase 78% over the next 15 years, with the proportion of the total population moving from 9.8% to 17.4 %.\u00a0 According to a survey by the National Association of Realtors that was reported in a recent New York Times<\/em> op-ed<\/a>, this aging \u201cBoomer\u201d population (born between 1946 and 1964) favors walkable urban downtowns, suburban town centers, and small towns.\u00a0 Interestingly, the Times<\/em> piece reports that the coming-of-age \u201cMillennial\u201d population (born between 1979 and 1996) appears to be favoring (by about one-third, according to various estimates) precisely the same kinds of settings for lifestyle reasons and for the convenience of not having to own cars.\u00a0 These data suggest that we\u2019re witnessing a major structural and demographic event: \u201cthe convergence of the two largest generations in American history\u201d in preferring walkable, mixed-use, and centrally-located neighborhoods.<\/p>\n

Thus, Peak Oil and Peak Population, insofar as Colorado is concerned, may be recommending a future that is traditionally urban and Old European, rather than exurban and \u201cNew Western.\u201d It remains to be seen whether Peak Water is pointing in the same direction.\u00a0 If it is, then urban planners and architects are facing a significant planning and design challenge for a Peak Planet<\/a> age: how to make a time-honored, traditional form of settlement much more environmentally and<\/em> interculturally attractive and sustainable.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Water is a key resource constraint in urban development, especially here in the West. \u00a0Because of projected population growth\u2014anticipated to double to 10 million people by 2050\u2014Colorado is predicted to have a municipal and industrial water gap by at least […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":"","footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true},"categories":[6,10,11,14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-824","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-denver-urbanism","category-sustainability","category-urban-studies","category-water-and-the-city"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p1H2bI-di","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.interculturalurbanism.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/824","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.interculturalurbanism.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.interculturalurbanism.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.interculturalurbanism.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.interculturalurbanism.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=824"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/www.interculturalurbanism.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/824\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2482,"href":"http:\/\/www.interculturalurbanism.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/824\/revisions\/2482"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.interculturalurbanism.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=824"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.interculturalurbanism.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=824"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.interculturalurbanism.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=824"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}